MY OWN PREDICTIONS ON "WHEN"!!!!

Since there are no rumours yet on when the next batch of referrals will start coming... I decided to do my own prediction (it's sort of based on some of what rumour queen said, something about four weeks)...

Four weeks from when she wrote this post would make it around June 23rd ~ the fourth week of June, so I'm going to put my bet on this week... that's when our call will come!!!!

Anyone else who wants to wager in on when will get our call, please do!!!

When~ Next Batch of Referrals....

May 26th, 2009 (Rumour Queen)

"I’m not exactly sure where to start with the When post this month. So I’ll start with two possibilities.

The referrals that arrived last week would have been mailed at the end of April if not for H1N1. The CCAA has been carrying on as normal since then, with no changes made to this batch once it was completed. They just held onto it until they were told they could mail it, keeping to their regular schedule.

The CCAA continued to work on the current batch once they realized they weren’t going to mail it at the end of April.

If (1) is true then we should expect another batch at the end of May or first of June. If (2) is true then we’re probably about four weeks from another batch.

Personally, I think (1) is more likely, but at this point there are no current rumors to validate either choice. If we look at past performance, then the actions during SARS would point to (1) being correct."

Well, we're at the end of May...so I'll go with scenario #2...

China Adoption Forecaster:

Our prediction for LID 2006-03-15:

China has 1 days of dossiers to be processed before they get to your dossier. China currently processes about 4.2 days of dossiers each month.

Our best guess: 2009-05-27

They are still predicting that we will receive our referral this month, which is strange because a batch of referrals have already been released this month ~ we'll see, but I doubt we'll hear any phone calls on May 27th... ~ this Wednesday coming....

From Linda (Children from China Adoption Facilitator)

Hi Mike and Cheryl,

You came close to making it this month. Just take heart that there is no more mystery as to IF you will be in the next batch but simply when.

As soon as I hear anything, I of course will let you know.

Hang in there.

Linda

Hey~ Looks like next month we'll finally see Maelins' cute little face!!!

This comment came (that I Love!) and I know someone who is going to get a kick out of it!!!

OH BELIEVE it NANNYIRENE...........we are all going to see that adorable little face very soon.................yiiiippppppppppeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(It turns out that Dianne and I went to nursing school together!!!)

FINALLY, some referrals going out~ THANK GOD!!!

Rumour Queen:

Good Rumors

May 20th, 2009
I haven’t gone through everything from yesterday, but at first glance I see multiple European agencies saying referrals either will be sent soon or have already been sent, and that the cut off is the 14th.
I do not have reports of any U.S. agencies saying this.
I’m giving this rumor an R2 at this point.

LOTS & LOTS OF RUMOURS!!!!!

There are many rumour on RQ that March 14th is the cut off for this group of referrals (not really confirmed yet, and not sure when it will be confirmed) ~ but we'll be in the next batch for sure!!! YIPEEEE!!!!

Oh Dear~ Could be a Longer Wait! (if that's possible....)

Rumors and updates
May 15th, 2009
The provinces I’ve heard about that aren’t confirming appointments to some agencies are:* Guangdong* Jiangxi* Beijing* Shanxi* Guizhou* Liaoning* Shandong

Some agencies are confirming appointments in these provinces with no problems. So far, I can’t find a logical reason why some are allowed to set appointments and others are not.

Five agencies have now confirmed that the CCAA is holding paperwork (referrals and in some cases TA’s) due to the swine flu. Just as many agencies have been told by the CCAA that it is business as usual and the longer period between referrals has nothing to do with the flu. Personally, I believe the first and not the latter at this point.

Two agencies have been told paperwork will be held until June, when the CCAA will look at the situation again. One agency is saying nothing will be mailed until September. The other agencies do not give a date. I tend to think that the CCAA is probably watching the situation and will begin mailing things when they think it is safe to do so.

One agency is saying that the CCAA has stopped matching. I don’t really think that is the case, and I’m mostly basing that on what happened during SARS. During SARS the CCAA kept matching, they just didn’t mail anything. When the crisis was over they mailed them out as fast as the various consulates could keep up.

As for why the CCAA isn’t making an announcement, I can make a few guesses. The first being that if they formally announce it then the press will pick up on it. I’m guessing that the media could make a nice big sensational headline out of it, so they aren’t going to give it to them.

Rumours re: Swine flu...

Reports on Rumour Queen are saying that two provinces so far in China, are not sceduling appointments for families to adopt at the present time.
Not certain yet if this applies to all provinces or not...NOT GOOD!

Please, please, PLEASE let this one be true!!!!

From Rumour Queen, of course~LOL!

"May 7th, 2009
This is down in the R1 or R2 range: there is an agency who thinks referrals will make it to the 15th this time."
If you’re not familiar with the rumor ratings you can read what they mean here.

LOOKS MORE PROMISING!!!

Nothing concrete yet but, sounds more positive about referrals still coming!!!

"May 4th, 2009
So far this morning we have one agency reporting the CCAA will hold referrals due to the swine flu, and one agency reporting that the CCAA told them that referrals will go out as usual.
With the arrival of SN TA’s this morning, and the release of the new WC list last night, I have to think that paperwork is still flowing at this time. Whether that will extend to referrals or not… as always, we will have to wait and see."

More on the Swine Flu....

Cases are being reported of the swine flu in China:

BEIJING — China's powerful diving team will skip a Grand Prix meet in the United States next month due to concerns over the spread of swine flu, ...

Globally, 14 countries have now reported cases of swine flu, with China, France and Denmark confirming cases Friday. The new cases brought the global total ...

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&q=Swine+flu+in+China&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=nh_8SZSfD4nAM9e51MEE&sa=X&oi=news_group&resnum=1&ct=title